Thursday, December 17, 2009

Statistics

Gross National Product (GDP)
The total value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country, regardless of who owns the assets or the nationality of the labor used in producing that output.. The growth of output is usually measured in real terms, meaning increases in output due to inflation have been removed.
Importance: One goal (often unstated) of central banks is sustained growth of the economy with full employment and stable prices. Real GDP is the most comprehensive measure of the performance of an economy. By monitoring trends in the overall growth rate as well as the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation, policy makers are able to assess whether the current stance of monetary policy is consistent with its policy goals.

Consumer Price Index (most countries have a similar measure)
The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.
Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.

Home Starts/Permits

New Home Sales record sales of U.S. newly constructed residences. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes New Home Sales, Starts and Permits statistics monthly.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is a broader composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly.
This is yet another measure of the housing industry in the U.S. It is watched because of its accuracy, but the data tend to be too old to impact the markets much.

Current Account balance
The Current Account balance is the difference between a nation's exports of goods and services and its imports of goods and services. The current account is one of the two primary components of the balance of payments, the other being the capital account. It is called the current account because goods and services are generally consumed in the current period.

U.S. Core PCE price index
The Core PCE price index is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy.
IMPACT: Core PCE is said to be the preferred inflation measure of the Fed and therefore is a very significant release in that it can influence policy. It is thought the Fed targets core PCE loosely between 2.0% and 3.0%.

Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production is an index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities). The data is produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
IMPACT: While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.

Personal Income
Personal income is defined as the income that is received by persons from participation in production, from both government and business transfer payments, and from government interest (which is treated like a transfer payment). It is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and transfer payments to persons, less personal contributions for social insurance.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey
Consumer Confidence Survey is a monthly report detailing consumer attitudes and buying intentions. The Index is calculated on the basis of a 5,000 household survey of consumer opinions on current conditions and future expectations of the economy.

Weekly jobless data
Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.
Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.
Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Purchasing Managers Index – Manufacturing and Service and Regional PMIs
Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indies are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.
A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.
We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.

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