prediction works

Trump says US has ‘passed the peak’ of coronavirus outbreak

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/trump-says-us-has-passed-the-peak-of-coronavirus-outbreak.html


'In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics". 

At least 2.5 billion of the World's 7.7 population can relax

In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics. And today, in Italy and Spain, the maximum number of infected people (Active Cases) is recorded, after which COVID-19 will go down.

En toda España cielo despejado

The table below shows the countries with the highest number of infected people. Mortality relative to the number of infected people varies from 0.78% in Russia to 12.77% in Italy (4th column). If the number of deaths is attributed to the number of residents, the spread among countries where the peak has passed will be as follows,%:

Australia 0.00022

China 0.00024

US 0.00569

Italy 0.03129

Spain 0.03472  (6th column).

Forecast for April 13 (one month since the beginning of the epidemic in Russia)

On April 8, 2020, Prime Minister Mishustin proudly reported: "About 800 thousand studies (tests for COVID-19) have already been done." The cost of the test in impoverished Russia is $16. For friends, a good business with a turnover of $800  million (50 million tests) is being hatched. Will the aplomb of a fresh Prime Minister remain in May, when the country will receive 800,000 infected people for 800,000 tests, made  in April?  For comparison, in a prosperous Germany, 200 thousand tests  are conducted  for FREE every Day. The government is responsible for all expenses.  Since April 5, has been testing for antibodies to the coronavirus randomly selected 4,500 people in Munich, in order to understand what percentage of the city's residents are currently ill with COVID-19, and, also, what is the proportion of those who have already been ill, having developed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The experiment will last 4 weeks.

Dynamics for 3.5 weeks

In Russia, the epidemic has been slowing since the end of March. The period for doubling the number of cases increased from 2.7 days in mid-March to 4.6 days in early April. If we compare the doubling time with the United States, then on April 8, we are closest to Pennsylvania, which on the 19th day of the epidemic had 10 thousand infected and the period for doubling was 5 days. In the United States since day 32 (300 thousand infected) there is 7 days for doubling.
   Statistical zero - is the day when the number of cases exceeds 50. For the US, this is February  24, and for Russia, is March 14, 2020.
  According to the current trend, there should be about 18,500 COVID-19 infected people in Russia on April 13 (the month from statistical zero). By this time there will be enough data to forecast the date of the trend reversal and estimate the total number of infected people.
in Russian

When will this disease go away? part 2

                                                                    - Please  tell me, when will this disease go way?

 - According to the news, only in 2036 
(Joke)

   Now about Russia, where rulers also chose the Chinese version of the fight against infection. A little information about the new flu: symptoms of COVID-19 infection resemble those of seasonal flu (dry cough, fever,  weakness). It is believed that this virus is much more virulent. Let's calculate. R0 (basic reproduction number or how many zero patient infected:  

• influenza   1.4-2.8,
• CAVID-19  1.4-3.9,
• Measles     12-18. 

But this information is not enough to predict the epidemic, you need to know the serial interval (the time between infections). For  "Spanish flu"  it is 3 days and 5 days for COVID-19. The mortality  of  the  "Spanish flu" in 1918-1919 was 5-10%, for  Corona-virus  is 0.5 (if treated), and the same 5-8% if not treated.  On average , get sick  COVID-19 for 25 days, or die after 18 day of illness.

When will this disease go away? part 1

Epigraph. I opened social networks,
and I was surprised: why so
many virologists in my friends list ? Decent 

political scientists. they were after all. 

I think that the war will end in 3 months. But the number of corpses and the state of the economy in different countries will demonstrate the true IQ of their leaders. In the fight against COVID-19, 99% of countries chose the Chinese version of enhanced social distancing, ideally-locking in quarantine (from ital. quaranta — "forty"). each family in their own apartment. Taking into account the last statement of W.Putin quarantine in Moscow (41 days, March 21-April 30) will take on its original meaning. The United States, which is half a month ahead of Russia in the phase of the epidemic, has chosen the option of a state of emergency that is in effect throughout the country. Each state has its own implementation details: for example, in California, residents are ordered to stay at home, public meetings are prohibited, kindergartens, schools, bars, restaurants, and most stores are closed. At the same time, no one closes parks, prohibits people from Cycling or taking walks. Taking these measures into account, D. Trump's advisers predict the peak of the epidemic on April 15.

The total number of victims is expected to be 100-240 thousand. (without an emergency, these figures could reach 1.5-2.2 million). 

As of April 1, 216,000 people were infected and 5,100 died in the United States.

It is clear that in this version of the fight against the virus, the economy is sacrificed. A more balanced approach was chosen by the leadership of Sweden and Belarus. The Swedish government supported the strategy of the public health Agency, developed by epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. The scientist believes that a rigid quarantine is not needed, because long-term infection can be defeated either through universal vaccination, or as a result of  herd immunity - limited method of infection, providing a way to slow the spread and reach as many people. In Sweden, there are almost no restrictions, there are businesses, restaurants, schools and shops. There are only recommendations: if possible, switch to remote work, avoid contact with the elderly, and observe hygiene.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 infection in the Scandinavian countries as of April 1, 2020:

Original text is  here.                      To be continued ...