When will this disease go away? part 2

                                                                    - Please  tell me, when will this disease go way?

 - According to the news, only in 2036 
(Joke)

   Now about Russia, where rulers also chose the Chinese version of the fight against infection. A little information about the new flu: symptoms of COVID-19 infection resemble those of seasonal flu (dry cough, fever,  weakness). It is believed that this virus is much more virulent. Let's calculate. R0 (basic reproduction number or how many zero patient infected:  

• influenza   1.4-2.8,
• CAVID-19  1.4-3.9,
• Measles     12-18. 

But this information is not enough to predict the epidemic, you need to know the serial interval (the time between infections). For  "Spanish flu"  it is 3 days and 5 days for COVID-19. The mortality  of  the  "Spanish flu" in 1918-1919 was 5-10%, for  Corona-virus  is 0.5 (if treated), and the same 5-8% if not treated.  On average , get sick  COVID-19 for 25 days, or die after 18 day of illness.

Comparison of the contagiousness  of  the "Spanish flu" and COVID-19
In other words, the popular opinion that in 2019-2020, the mankind met a unique type of influenza in terms of contagion and mortality is a myth - the "Spanish flu" was much more dangerous.   Now about the elegant technique of infection. The corona of the virus is not an ornament, but an essential tool. Each spike of its crown is a free treat that the virus offers to the host cell. Hearing a guest with a gift (spike)  at her porch, the cell let him come into the house. Once in the cell, the virus causes it to reproduce its own copies instead of the usual proteins for the cell. Since at the initial stage, the coronavirus is actively reproduced in the throat, coughing is the first symptom of the infection.   Let's go back to Russia. The first graph shows the spread of the disease in Russia from March 14 to April 3, 2020 (red line). The blue line is the interpolation of the data by exponent. Green  boxes - is the interpolation by geometric progression.

As you can see, after March 28, the blue line passes above the red one. This means that we are seeing a trend to slowing  down the spread of the epidemic. At my first estimates, (made on March, 21-24), predicted that half of the Russian population would expected to get COVID-19 by May 15, 2020. Calculations made on March 27 showed that 64 million  people  would be infected by May 15. However, measures to isolate oneself, increased social distance, and tighten hygiene led to a sharp decrease in the rate of spread of the epidemic and, accordingly, the projected number of infected people by  May 15 (chart 2).There is reason to expect that by Palm Sunday (April 12, 2020), the spread of CAVID-19 will slow down so much that on May 15, we will receive only 100,000 cases. Without quarantine, there will be 10 million.

chart 2 Change in the estimation  of the number of COVID-19 cases in Russia by May 15, 2020

At the end of June, it will be interesting to compare:
- two approaches to curbing the epidemic
- the economies of Sweden and Belarus and the economic situation in the rest of the world.
The following analogy is appropriate when a family needs to make a choice: the health of the mother-in-law or the well-being of the family and fed children. 99% of countries chose the mother-in-law's health, Belarus and Sweden preferred (to date) the second option.
If the Swedes and Alexander Lukashenko are right, then after the epidemic, while the whole world is rebuilding its economy from the ruins, Sweden and Belarus will be far ahead.
source
And again to the prospects of covid-19 in Russia. Linear extrapolation of the effect of slowing down  the epidemic is only a rough approximation. Clarification is expected in part 3. in the meantime, Now I expect that the number of cases identified by May 15 will be in the range of 100,000 - 10 million.