Plateau for start

Graph 1 Total number of cases, number of active cases, and rate of change in the United States, logarithmic scale.

   On May 30, there was maximum number of active cases (1 176 025),  on June 16, it was surpassed (1 186 227). The number of active cases on July 1, 2020 is 1 454 397.

Graph 2 Daily number of tests and percentage of detected cases in the United States

   On June 14 (111 day of the epidemic), the minimum percentage of detected cases (2.8%) was reached and the trend reversed.

Graph 3 Graph of the total number of infected  people and  number of active cases in Russia

   Although the infection in Russia started 19 days later than in the United States, the percentage of active  cases in Russia is significantly lower.

Graph 4 Daily number of tests and percentage of detected  cases in Russia

   "Saw" in number of tests characterizes the work of laboratories: war by war, and the lunch is by schedule. It is possible that many of them do not work on weekends. On June 30, the epidemic reached another minimum of 1.9 % on day 106 from the beginning of the epidemic.

Graph 5 Charts of normalized Rt reproduction number in the USA and Russia

   If Rt n is greater than 1, the infection widens, and if it less than 1, it fades. In the US, the plateau was not a maximum, but a respite before real growth. In this graph, the difference between the beginning of the epidemic in the United States and Russia is not 19 but 21 days, to  align weekly cycles. As you can see the risk to catch the desease in the US is, at least 30% higher on Saturdays, than on Tuesdays.
   Whether Russia will follow the well-trodden American path, or Russians mostly overcome the desease, will be revealed in a week.

prediction works

Trump says US has ‘passed the peak’ of coronavirus outbreak

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/trump-says-us-has-passed-the-peak-of-coronavirus-outbreak.html


'In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics". 

At least 2.5 billion of the World's 7.7 population can relax

In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics. And today, in Italy and Spain, the maximum number of infected people (Active Cases) is recorded, after which COVID-19 will go down.

En toda España cielo despejado

The table below shows the countries with the highest number of infected people. Mortality relative to the number of infected people varies from 0.78% in Russia to 12.77% in Italy (4th column). If the number of deaths is attributed to the number of residents, the spread among countries where the peak has passed will be as follows,%:

Australia 0.00022

China 0.00024

US 0.00569

Italy 0.03129

Spain 0.03472  (6th column).

When will this disease go away? part 2

                                                                    - Please  tell me, when will this disease go way?

 - According to the news, only in 2036 
(Joke)

   Now about Russia, where rulers also chose the Chinese version of the fight against infection. A little information about the new flu: symptoms of COVID-19 infection resemble those of seasonal flu (dry cough, fever,  weakness). It is believed that this virus is much more virulent. Let's calculate. R0 (basic reproduction number or how many zero patient infected:  

• influenza   1.4-2.8,
• CAVID-19  1.4-3.9,
• Measles     12-18. 

But this information is not enough to predict the epidemic, you need to know the serial interval (the time between infections). For  "Spanish flu"  it is 3 days and 5 days for COVID-19. The mortality  of  the  "Spanish flu" in 1918-1919 was 5-10%, for  Corona-virus  is 0.5 (if treated), and the same 5-8% if not treated.  On average , get sick  COVID-19 for 25 days, or die after 18 day of illness.