Plateau for start

Graph 1 Total number of cases, number of active cases, and rate of change in the United States, logarithmic scale.

   On May 30, there was maximum number of active cases (1 176 025),  on June 16, it was surpassed (1 186 227). The number of active cases on July 1, 2020 is 1 454 397.

Graph 2 Daily number of tests and percentage of detected cases in the United States

   On June 14 (111 day of the epidemic), the minimum percentage of detected cases (2.8%) was reached and the trend reversed.

Graph 3 Graph of the total number of infected  people and  number of active cases in Russia

   Although the infection in Russia started 19 days later than in the United States, the percentage of active  cases in Russia is significantly lower.

Graph 4 Daily number of tests and percentage of detected  cases in Russia

   "Saw" in number of tests characterizes the work of laboratories: war by war, and the lunch is by schedule. It is possible that many of them do not work on weekends. On June 30, the epidemic reached another minimum of 1.9 % on day 106 from the beginning of the epidemic.

Graph 5 Charts of normalized Rt reproduction number in the USA and Russia

   If Rt n is greater than 1, the infection widens, and if it less than 1, it fades. In the US, the plateau was not a maximum, but a respite before real growth. In this graph, the difference between the beginning of the epidemic in the United States and Russia is not 19 but 21 days, to  align weekly cycles. As you can see the risk to catch the desease in the US is, at least 30% higher on Saturdays, than on Tuesdays.
   Whether Russia will follow the well-trodden American path, or Russians mostly overcome the desease, will be revealed in a week.

Forecast for April 13 (one month since the beginning of the epidemic in Russia)

On April 8, 2020, Prime Minister Mishustin proudly reported: "About 800 thousand studies (tests for COVID-19) have already been done." The cost of the test in impoverished Russia is $16. For friends, a good business with a turnover of $800  million (50 million tests) is being hatched. Will the aplomb of a fresh Prime Minister remain in May, when the country will receive 800,000 infected people for 800,000 tests, made  in April?  For comparison, in a prosperous Germany, 200 thousand tests  are conducted  for FREE every Day. The government is responsible for all expenses.  Since April 5, has been testing for antibodies to the coronavirus randomly selected 4,500 people in Munich, in order to understand what percentage of the city's residents are currently ill with COVID-19, and, also, what is the proportion of those who have already been ill, having developed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The experiment will last 4 weeks.

Dynamics for 3.5 weeks

In Russia, the epidemic has been slowing since the end of March. The period for doubling the number of cases increased from 2.7 days in mid-March to 4.6 days in early April. If we compare the doubling time with the United States, then on April 8, we are closest to Pennsylvania, which on the 19th day of the epidemic had 10 thousand infected and the period for doubling was 5 days. In the United States since day 32 (300 thousand infected) there is 7 days for doubling.
   Statistical zero - is the day when the number of cases exceeds 50. For the US, this is February  24, and for Russia, is March 14, 2020.
  According to the current trend, there should be about 18,500 COVID-19 infected people in Russia on April 13 (the month from statistical zero). By this time there will be enough data to forecast the date of the trend reversal and estimate the total number of infected people.
in Russian