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Мособлгаз корону спас

Откройте, Мосгаз!   (for friends)

Plateau for start

Graph 1 Total number of cases, number of active cases, and rate of change in the United States, logarithmic scale.

   On May 30, there was maximum number of active cases (1 176 025),  on June 16, it was surpassed (1 186 227). The number of active cases on July 1, 2020 is 1 454 397.

Graph 2 Daily number of tests and percentage of detected cases in the United States

   On June 14 (111 day of the epidemic), the minimum percentage of detected cases (2.8%) was reached and the trend reversed.

Graph 3 Graph of the total number of infected  people and  number of active cases in Russia

   Although the infection in Russia started 19 days later than in the United States, the percentage of active  cases in Russia is significantly lower.

Graph 4 Daily number of tests and percentage of detected  cases in Russia

   "Saw" in number of tests characterizes the work of laboratories: war by war, and the lunch is by schedule. It is possible that many of them do not work on weekends. On June 30, the epidemic reached another minimum of 1.9 % on day 106 from the beginning of the epidemic.

Graph 5 Charts of normalized Rt reproduction number in the USA and Russia

   If Rt n is greater than 1, the infection widens, and if it less than 1, it fades. In the US, the plateau was not a maximum, but a respite before real growth. In this graph, the difference between the beginning of the epidemic in the United States and Russia is not 19 but 21 days, to  align weekly cycles. As you can see the risk to catch the desease in the US is, at least 30% higher on Saturdays, than on Tuesdays.
   Whether Russia will follow the well-trodden American path, or Russians mostly overcome the desease, will be revealed in a week.

Picky cusstomers vote with both hands FOR

buildup of herd immunity to covid-19.
On Sunday morning, I went to my hypermarket to buy some food. In the store, there are ads  everywhere, as if borrowed from the rules of the game of chess: "take-move " (touched-take). In the department of vegetables and fruits there are trays with beautiful strawberries. And for the second week I can see aesthetes who take one berry with their hands, examine it and put it back. I address  the management of large stores: "If you have published a rule, monitor its implementation." I guess, that a fine of $8 for one berry that was put back in the tray will solve all the problems of painful choice.  If the store managers have the task of building up a – herd immunity in the city, then such picky and indecisive customers are the ideal guides for this approach to fighting infection.
Now about the tests.

Chart1. Daily number of tests and cases of infection in Russia

The first  chart shows the number of tests and the percentage of infected people in Russia. The highs for the number of tests fall on Saturday and Sunday, and the lows -  on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is as if there is a background testing  with a low detection rate (2.5%) and there are people concerned about their health who come on weekends and raise the percentage of infected people up to 3.5 .

Chart 2. Weekly cycle of infection spikes in the US and Russia

The second chart shows the normalized distribution coefficients Rt n in the United States and in  Russia . In the US, the risk of catching the  infection is 35% higher on Saturday and Sunday than on Wednesday. It is possible that many Americans lead a more active social life over weekends, and, as a result, are more likely to become infected.

In Russia, the opposite picture is observed: The Rt n distribution coefficient is 13% higher on Tuesday-Wednesday than at the weekend. My version of the explanation is that in Russia people spend weekends at their dachas and, consequently, have fewer contacts than on weekdays.

"Sovereign" statistics as an alternative to the IgG test

On June 1, several of my friends who work at RSC Energia come out of quarantine. On may 5, their General Manager died from covid-19. On April 1, when the quarantine was introduced, 2,776 infected people were detected in the country, and on May 30  the number was  396,575. In other words, General Manager E. Mikrin was infected at a time when the probability of getting sick was 140 times lower than today. I do not think that in the case of complications, the chances of survival for ordinary employees are higher than for their General Manager, but the chances of getting sick have increased many times: in transport, in the factory canteen, and especially during a 9-hour stay in the office. President Trump demonstrates that he is with the people of America (every citizen received $1,200), he holds meetings, and almost every day communicates with journalists. Our situation is somewhat different with the President and with the help to Russian citizens. It is clear that the National Welfare Fund (169 $ billlion) is not to fight some Chinese flu, but to protect against a cheeky ("nahalny") threat.
But now it would be possible to help those who from June 1 will be packed into trains and buses, work in offices and enterprises so their taxes will go to the budget as a result. Before authorities  throw them into  the Red zone, they could ensure some safety by conducting free tests on antibodies (IgG class immunoglobulins), because today the cost of such a test in the Moscow region is $66 , and the result could be only in 7 days.
Now about the wonders of "sovereign" statistics. The first graph shows the number of cases and the number of people still ill in the United States. Their ratio is 65.2%. The time to double the number of infected people in the country is 53 days.

Pro tests

Our assumption that Italy and Spain passed the maximum number of active cases of infection in mid-April has confirmed. Today's table differs from the previous one by adding three columns: the Absolute number of tests, the Relative number of tests, and the Relative number of detected cases. Also, Peru was added instead of China due to the lack of Chinese statistics of tests.

Table 1 shows that in comparison with the Asian stage, a greater number of days is required to reach the maximum number of active cases: previously, 20-40 days, now - 80-90.

Tab.1

More than 5% of the population was tested in Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Israel, and less than 1% - in Iran, Brazil and India. (Hist.1)

Hist.1 Relative to the population number of tests (blue) and the relative number of infected (red)

In terms of the relative number of infected, the USA, Spain and Belgium are ahead (more than 0.4% of the population), tailing  Brazil, South Korea, India and Australia-less than 0.1%. (Chart 1)

Chart 1 Number of infected as a percentage of the population (blue) and number of deaths per 100,000 population (red)

More than 32 deaths per 100,000 population: in Belgium, Spain, Italy, Britain, France, Sweden and the Netherlands. Less than 9 – in India, Australia, South Korea, Russia, Israel, Turkey, Austria, Brazil, Peru and Iran.In Table 1, the 4th column from the end shows the countries that passed the first wave of the epidemic. In the third column from the end, the yellow cells indicate that the wave is close to its apogee and the brown ones indicate countries where the end is not yet visible – Peru, Brazil, Russia, Sweden and India.

The most backward medicine - in three neighboring countries, where the number of deaths relative to the number of cases is highest, %:·

3     Britain    14.4·

2     France   15.3·

1     Belgium  16.4.

And, the most intriguing, 4 countries with the most advanced medicine. In the 4-th column of  Tab.1 you can see number of deaths relative to detected cases, %. The leaders are:·

4       S.Korea     2.4·

3       Israel         1.6·

2       Australia    1.4

Based on official data, country that has the best equipped medicine in the world with the most professional doctors is drum roll :

1        Russia       0.9.

At least 2.5 billion of the World's 7.7 population can relax

In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics. And today, in Italy and Spain, the maximum number of infected people (Active Cases) is recorded, after which COVID-19 will go down.

En toda España cielo despejado

The table below shows the countries with the highest number of infected people. Mortality relative to the number of infected people varies from 0.78% in Russia to 12.77% in Italy (4th column). If the number of deaths is attributed to the number of residents, the spread among countries where the peak has passed will be as follows,%:

Australia 0.00022

China 0.00024

US 0.00569

Italy 0.03129

Spain 0.03472  (6th column).

Forecast for April 13 (one month since the beginning of the epidemic in Russia)

On April 8, 2020, Prime Minister Mishustin proudly reported: "About 800 thousand studies (tests for COVID-19) have already been done." The cost of the test in impoverished Russia is $16. For friends, a good business with a turnover of $800  million (50 million tests) is being hatched. Will the aplomb of a fresh Prime Minister remain in May, when the country will receive 800,000 infected people for 800,000 tests, made  in April?  For comparison, in a prosperous Germany, 200 thousand tests  are conducted  for FREE every Day. The government is responsible for all expenses.  Since April 5, has been testing for antibodies to the coronavirus randomly selected 4,500 people in Munich, in order to understand what percentage of the city's residents are currently ill with COVID-19, and, also, what is the proportion of those who have already been ill, having developed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The experiment will last 4 weeks.

Dynamics for 3.5 weeks

In Russia, the epidemic has been slowing since the end of March. The period for doubling the number of cases increased from 2.7 days in mid-March to 4.6 days in early April. If we compare the doubling time with the United States, then on April 8, we are closest to Pennsylvania, which on the 19th day of the epidemic had 10 thousand infected and the period for doubling was 5 days. In the United States since day 32 (300 thousand infected) there is 7 days for doubling.
   Statistical zero - is the day when the number of cases exceeds 50. For the US, this is February  24, and for Russia, is March 14, 2020.
  According to the current trend, there should be about 18,500 COVID-19 infected people in Russia on April 13 (the month from statistical zero). By this time there will be enough data to forecast the date of the trend reversal and estimate the total number of infected people.
in Russian