On June 1, several of my friends who work at RSC Energia come out of quarantine. On may 5, their General Manager died from covid-19. On April 1, when the quarantine was introduced, 2,776 infected people were detected in the country, and on May 30 the number was 396,575. In other words, General Manager E. Mikrin was infected at a time when the probability of getting sick was 140 times lower than today. I do not think that in the case of complications, the chances of survival for ordinary employees are higher than for their General Manager, but the chances of getting sick have increased many times: in transport, in the factory canteen, and especially during a 9-hour stay in the office. President Trump demonstrates that he is with the people of America (every citizen received $1,200), he holds meetings, and almost every day communicates with journalists. Our situation is somewhat different with the President and with the help to Russian citizens. It is clear that the National Welfare Fund (169 $ billlion) is not to fight some Chinese flu, but to protect against a cheeky ("nahalny") threat.
But now it would be possible to help those who from June 1 will be packed into trains and buses, work in offices and enterprises so their taxes will go to the budget as a result. Before authorities throw them into the Red zone, they could ensure some safety by conducting free tests on antibodies (IgG class immunoglobulins), because today the cost of such a test in the Moscow region is $66 , and the result could be only in 7 days.
Now about the wonders of "sovereign" statistics. The first graph shows the number of cases and the number of people still ill in the United States. Their ratio is 65.2%. The time to double the number of infected people in the country is 53 days.
Chart 1
The second chart shows similar information for Russia, which is 3 weeks behind America. Here, the increase in the number of infected people is higher than in the US (the doubling time is 30 days). However, the number of Active cases (56.6%) shows that we are significantly AHEAD of the US (that is, according to this indicator, the epidemic began in Russia not 3 weeks later, but earlier than in America). Here they "must either remove the cross or put on our underpants": we are lagging behind the US, which has not reached the peak, and we are demonstrating the dynamics of the number of Active cases, which means that Russia has already passed the peak.
Chart 2
The third graph shows the number of tests in the US and the Total number of cases. During the month of May, the number of tests reached 5% of the population, and the number of infected people decreased from 14 to 5.5% of the number of tests.
Chart 3
The fourth chart shows the same Tests/Population and Cases/Tests, only in Russia.
Chart 4
The X-axis – is the number of days since the beginning of the epidemic in the country. In terms of the number of tests, Russia significantly surpassed the US (7% on day 77). Only 2.9% of the population was surveyed in the United States at this time. But further statistics ia awkward: in Russia on the 77th day number of cases is 3.5 % of number of tests, and in the US at this time the number of cases was 2.14 times more - 7.5% . Perhaps the solution is in the method of conducting. We don't know anything about who is being tested. The simplest explanation for the wonders of Russian statistics is that testing focuses on the young and healthy (for example army and police).
So, on June 1, the dealer launches Russian roulette for generation of baby boomers (born in 1946-1964). The lucky ones only moscovites: in the City they can take an antibody test for free by appointment. If deviations in statistics are just a sign of a "special civilization" (according to V. Putin), then I expect 530 thousand infected people by June 12. If Russia is still not ahead, but behind the US, the result will be more serious.
But now it would be possible to help those who from June 1 will be packed into trains and buses, work in offices and enterprises so their taxes will go to the budget as a result. Before authorities throw them into the Red zone, they could ensure some safety by conducting free tests on antibodies (IgG class immunoglobulins), because today the cost of such a test in the Moscow region is $66 , and the result could be only in 7 days.
Now about the wonders of "sovereign" statistics. The first graph shows the number of cases and the number of people still ill in the United States. Their ratio is 65.2%. The time to double the number of infected people in the country is 53 days.
Chart 1
The second chart shows similar information for Russia, which is 3 weeks behind America. Here, the increase in the number of infected people is higher than in the US (the doubling time is 30 days). However, the number of Active cases (56.6%) shows that we are significantly AHEAD of the US (that is, according to this indicator, the epidemic began in Russia not 3 weeks later, but earlier than in America). Here they "must either remove the cross or put on our underpants": we are lagging behind the US, which has not reached the peak, and we are demonstrating the dynamics of the number of Active cases, which means that Russia has already passed the peak.
Chart 2
The third graph shows the number of tests in the US and the Total number of cases. During the month of May, the number of tests reached 5% of the population, and the number of infected people decreased from 14 to 5.5% of the number of tests.
Chart 3
The fourth chart shows the same Tests/Population and Cases/Tests, only in Russia.
Chart 4
The X-axis – is the number of days since the beginning of the epidemic in the country. In terms of the number of tests, Russia significantly surpassed the US (7% on day 77). Only 2.9% of the population was surveyed in the United States at this time. But further statistics ia awkward: in Russia on the 77th day number of cases is 3.5 % of number of tests, and in the US at this time the number of cases was 2.14 times more - 7.5% . Perhaps the solution is in the method of conducting. We don't know anything about who is being tested. The simplest explanation for the wonders of Russian statistics is that testing focuses on the young and healthy (for example army and police).
So, on June 1, the dealer launches Russian roulette for generation of baby boomers (born in 1946-1964). The lucky ones only moscovites: in the City they can take an antibody test for free by appointment. If deviations in statistics are just a sign of a "special civilization" (according to V. Putin), then I expect 530 thousand infected people by June 12. If Russia is still not ahead, but behind the US, the result will be more serious.
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