When will this disease go away? part 1

Epigraph. I opened social networks,
and I was surprised: why so
many virologists in my friends list ? Decent 

political scientists. they were after all. 

I think that the war will end in 3 months. But the number of corpses and the state of the economy in different countries will demonstrate the true IQ of their leaders. In the fight against COVID-19, 99% of countries chose the Chinese version of enhanced social distancing, ideally-locking in quarantine (from ital. quaranta — "forty"). each family in their own apartment. Taking into account the last statement of W.Putin quarantine in Moscow (41 days, March 21-April 30) will take on its original meaning. The United States, which is half a month ahead of Russia in the phase of the epidemic, has chosen the option of a state of emergency that is in effect throughout the country. Each state has its own implementation details: for example, in California, residents are ordered to stay at home, public meetings are prohibited, kindergartens, schools, bars, restaurants, and most stores are closed. At the same time, no one closes parks, prohibits people from Cycling or taking walks. Taking these measures into account, D. Trump's advisers predict the peak of the epidemic on April 15.

The total number of victims is expected to be 100-240 thousand. (without an emergency, these figures could reach 1.5-2.2 million). 

As of April 1, 216,000 people were infected and 5,100 died in the United States.

It is clear that in this version of the fight against the virus, the economy is sacrificed. A more balanced approach was chosen by the leadership of Sweden and Belarus. The Swedish government supported the strategy of the public health Agency, developed by epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. The scientist believes that a rigid quarantine is not needed, because long-term infection can be defeated either through universal vaccination, or as a result of  herd immunity - limited method of infection, providing a way to slow the spread and reach as many people. In Sweden, there are almost no restrictions, there are businesses, restaurants, schools and shops. There are only recommendations: if possible, switch to remote work, avoid contact with the elderly, and observe hygiene.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 infection in the Scandinavian countries as of April 1, 2020:

Original text is  here.                      To be continued ...