Saturday, June 20, 2020

Pro tests. continuation

Epigraph.
And then in normal light it appeared in black
What we value and love, what the team is proud of.

А потом в нормальном свете представало в черном цвете
То, что ценим мы и любим, чем гордится коллектив.
В.Высоцкий

It seems that even the virus realized that it could not frighten the people who overcame the Polovtsians with the Pechenegs. Since June 11, the Rt reproduction coefficient does not exceed 1.01 and is equal to 0.916 on June 19. Unfortunately, this coefficient can become a tool of manipulation in dishonest hands, since the number of detected cases is directly proportional to the number of tests. So that no one has any doubts about the reliability of the picture, we recalculated the Rt coefficient taking into account the number of tests conducted in Russia and the United States. The results are shown in figure 1.

Figure1. Rt and Rt n in Russia and USA
In the US, the normalized Rt n coefficient has become slightly more volatile compared to the classic one, and that's all. The situation in Russia is much more interesting. First, the weekly cycles became much clearer and the chart began to resemble the American one more and more. But most importantly, the picture of a decline of  infection, which is drawn by the usual Rt, has been replaced by cyclical fluctuations in the range of 0.84 -1.1, where there is no decline. On June 19, Rt n is equal to 1.094.




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