Thursday, September 23, 2010
will apple fall?
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Friday, September 3, 2010
Monday, August 23, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Thursday, June 3, 2010
0610
Dr. Seuss
Monday, May 10, 2010
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Thursday, April 1, 2010
0410
Aristotle (384 BC-322 BC)
Monday, March 29, 2010
Politicians and the general
Monday, March 8, 2010
Thursday, March 4, 2010
0310
Dr. John Hoover. How to Work for an Idiot.
Nature is a mutable cloud which is always and never the same.
Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803-1882)
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
In any decade,
one sector of the financial markets is usually dominant. There is one corner of the financial universe where so much new stuff is happening, and it is of such importance to the rest of the world, that it is far easier for a young, ambitious person to make their mark than anywhere else.
In the 1980s, it was mergers-and-acquisitions deals.
In the 1990s, it was the venture capitalist who backed technology companies, and the bankers who arranged initial public offerings for dot-com companies on the stock market.
In the 2000s, it was hedge funds, along with the derivatives traders that supplied them with products.
But in the 2010s, it will be currency trading.
There are already plenty of signs that the foreign-exchange markets are hotter than a sunny day on Venus.
Deutsche Bank AG reported last month that its currency- trading platform for retail investors had a 40 percent increase in customer numbers in 2009. Ordinary investors clearly see exchange trading as an area of the market they want to be in.
In London, which is the global currency-trading hub, strong growth is also evident. According to a Bank of England study, daily trading volumes rose 13 percent to $1.43 trillion in October compared with April last year. In the U.S., foreign- exchange trading volumes rose 28 percent to $675 billion a day in the six months ended in October, according to a Federal Reserve-affiliated study. Those are impressive numbers. The volume of London trading isn’t quite back to pre-credit crunch levels, but it is getting close.
Debt Crisis
There are several good reasons for expecting currency trading to be the focus for financial markets this decade.
First, the sovereign-debt crisis. Governments took on huge debt to combat the financial meltdown. That didn’t really fix the problem. It just shifted it from one place to another. Now there are doubts about whether nations can service their obligations. The only way the markets can discipline governments, or pass a verdict on their performance, is via the currency markets. However the crisis eventually works out, it is the foreign-exchange markets that will be in the driver’s seat.
Second, the dollar is in long-term decline. Regardless of how well the U.S. recovers, the rise of new economies such as China, Brazil and India means America won’t be the dominant force in the world that it once was. The result? The dollar’s special status is coming to an end. That may be a good thing after some intense volatility as the world adjusts. Again, it is currency traders who will be in control of that transition.
Third, the advent of new reserve currencies. With the dollar on the way down, the world will need something as a reliable store of value. There are plenty of candidates: It might be gold, an International Monetary Fund-sponsored basket of currencies, or a new world currency. Who knows, it could be something nobody has thought of yet. Ultimately it will be foreign-exchange traders who decide what works and what doesn’t. link
Monday, February 15, 2010
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BERLIN (Reuters) - A majority of Germans want debt-ridden Greece to be thrown out of the euro zone if necessary and more than two-thirds oppose handing Athens billions of euros in credit, a poll published on Sunday showed.
Vocal opposition to aid for Greece from members of Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition also grew at the weekend with several senior politicians expressing skepticism, especially as Germany's own recovery is fragile.The Emnid poll for Bild am Sonntag newspaper showed 53 percent of Germans asked said the European Union should, if necessary, expel Greece from the euro zone.Athens has struggled to convince investors it is tackling its debt crisis and markets are nervous about a default.EU leaders discussed the issue last week and offered words of support but failed to outline concrete steps, further unsettling markets. Euro zone finance ministers are expected to discuss Greece again on Monday and Tuesday.Merkel has adopted a cautious stance on support, saying while Greece will not be left on its own, it is up to Athens to sort out its own problems.The poll also showed 67 percent of Germans did not want Germany and other EU states to give billions of euros in credit to Greece."If we start now, where do we stop?" Michael Fuchs, deputy head of Merkel's conservatives in parliament, told Welt am Sonntag newspaper."I can't explain to people on unemployment benefit that they won't get a cent more but Greeks can draw a pension at 63."In her first term, Merkel raised Germany's retirement age to 67 from 65 in an effort to rein in the deficit to meet EU goals.
RESISTANCE GROWING?
Merkel's coalition partners, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) are even more resistant to helping Greece."Solving this problem cannot be about aid for Greece," FDP budget expert Otto Fricke told Welt am Sonntag. "If anything, it's about keeping any damage away from German tax payers."Germany suffered its sharpest post-war recession last year and the upturn in Europe's biggest economy stalled in the fourth quarter, data showed on Friday.Such data fuels economists' warnings about helping Greece.Former European Central Bank chief economist Otmar Issing, who has played a leading role in advising Berlin during the credit crisis, said financial support for Greece from euro zone countries would be misguided."That is the way to the whole building subsiding," Issing told Welt am Sonntag, adding Greece had to take further steps itself, pointing in particular to the generous pension system.Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff even warned Germany could face similar problems to Greece."Germany's public finances are not on a sustainable path," Rogoff told Welt am Sonntag. "There will come a time when Germany will have its own Greece problem ... it won't be as bad as in Greece, but it will be painful," said Rogoff.Germany's budget deficit is forecast to grow to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 and Merkel has vowed to consolidate the deficit as soon as the recovery allows.However Rogoff, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist, said helping Greece was unavoidable.
"As long as Germany isn't ready to kick Greece out of the euro zone, it must help," said Rogoff who also said an option would be for the Greek government to secure bridging credit. link
For the past few weeks the question has been whether Germany will rescue Greece and the other floundering eurozone economies from their own excesses. The point at issue now may be more whether Germany will even be able to afford such an exercise. Europe's largest economy seems to be heading for a "double dip" recession – raising fresh doubts about Berlin's ability to finance any possible rescues for the so-called PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain – the eurozone states with the weakest public finances.