Covid-19 has reached a plateau in the US,

 but in Russia the trend line is slowly increasing. Rn - normalized reproduction number usually gets peak on weekends.

 

OANDA is not a good choice

 if you plan to withdraw. I don't see money  for 17 days after (they say) payment.  I four (!) times asked to provide the prove of the transfer. And at last OANDA sent this piece of s*:

Do they hire people with mental disabilities?

Buckminster Fuller

Richard Buckminster Fuller ( July 12, 1895, Milton, MA, US – July 1, 1983, Los Angeles, CA, US) .

   In 1927, at age 32, Fuller lost his job as president of Stockade Building Systems, a business which aimed to provide affordable, efficient housing. The Fuller family had no savings, and during the autumn of 1927, Fuller contemplated suicide by drowning in Lake Michigan, so that his family could benefit from a life insurance payment. Fuller said that he had experienced a profound incident which would provide direction and purpose for his life. He felt as though he was suspended several feet above the ground enclosed in a white sphere of light. A voice spoke directly to Fuller, and declared:

"From now on you need never await temporal attestation to your thought. You think the truth. You do not have the right to eliminate yourself. You do not belong to you. You belong to Universe. Your significance will remain forever obscure to you, but you may assume that you are fulfilling your role if you apply yourself to converting your experiences to the highest advantage of others." In 1927 Fuller resolved to think independently which included a commitment to "finding ways of doing more with less to the end that all people everywhere can have more and more"
   Fuller taught at Black Mountain College in North Carolina during the summers of 1948 and 1949, serving as its Summer Institute director in 1949.  At Black Mountain, with the support of a group of professors and students, he began reinventing a project that would make him famous: the geodesic dome. 

 The Montreal Biosphère, formerly the American Pavilion of Expo 67, by R. Buckminster Fuller

Although the geodesic dome had been created, built and awarded a German patent on June 19, 1925 by Dr. Walther Bauersfeld, Fuller was awarded United States patents. Fuller neglected to cite that the self supporting dome had already been built some 26 years prior in his patent applications. Although Fuller undoubtedly popularized this type of structure he is mistakenly given credit for its design.

Fuller believed human societies would soon rely mainly on renewable sources of energy, such as solar- and wind-derived electricity. He hoped for an age of "omni-successful education and sustenance of all humanity".

Yul Brynner

   

   Yuliy Borisovich Briner (July 11, 1920, Vladivostok, RU – October 10, 1985, New York, US), better known as Yul Brynner, was a Russian-American actor, singer, and director, considered one of the first Russian-American film stars. He became widely known for his portrayal of King Mongkut in musical The King and I, for which he won two Tony Awards (1952, 1985), and later won an Academy Award (Oscar) for the film adaptation (1956).
   He  had Swiss-German, Russian and Buryat (Mongol) ancestry, and was born at home in a four-story residence. After Yul's father, Boris Briner, a mining engineer and inventor abandoned the family in 1923,  his former spouse Marousia (née Blagovidova) took  Yuliy (3),  and Vera (7)  to Harbin (China). In 1932 the family moved to France, and in 1940, - to the United States.

   Famous quote by Yul Brynner:
Girls have an unfair advantage over men: if they can't get what they want by being smart, they can get it by being dumb.


   

Nikola Tesla

Nikola Tesla (10 July 1856, Smiljan, Austrian Empire (modern-day Croatia) – 7 January 1943, 

New York City, United States) was a Serbian-American inventor, electrical engineer, mechanical engineer, and who is best known for his contributions to the design of the modern alternating current (AC) electricity supply system. 

In 1928, Tesla received U.S. Patent 1,655,114, for a biplane capable of taking off vertically (VTOL aircraft) and then of being "gradually tilted through manipulation of the elevator devices" in flight until it was flying like a conventional plane. Tesla thought the plane would sell for less than $1,000, although the aircraft has been described as impractical, although it has early resemblances to the V-22 Osprey used by the US military.

V-22 Osprey

This was his last patent. At the 1932 party, Tesla claimed he had invented a motor that would run on cosmic rays. In 1933 at age 77, Tesla told reporters at the event that, after 35 years of work, he was on the verge of producing proof of a new form of energy. He claimed it was a theory of energy that was "violently opposed" to Einsteinian physics, and could be tapped with an apparatus that would be cheap to run and last 500 years.

   He never married. He walked 8 to 10 miles per day and he squished his toes one hundred times for each foot every night.

Tesla walked to the park every day to feed the pigeons. He began feeding them at the window of his hotel room and nursed injured birds back to health. He said that he had been visited by a certain injured white pigeon daily. He spent over $2,000 to care for the bird, including a device he built to support her comfortably while her broken wing and leg healed.Tesla stated:

   "I have been feeding pigeons, thousands of them for years. But there was one, a beautiful bird, pure white with light grey tips on its wings; that one was different. It was a female. I had only to wish and call her and she would come flying to me. I loved that pigeon as a man loves a woman, and she loved me. As long as I had her, there was a purpose to my life. "

  In the fall of 1937 at the age of 81, after midnight one night, Tesla left the Hotel New Yorker to make his regular commute to the cathedral and library to feed the pigeons. While crossing a street a couple of blocks from the hotel, Tesla was unable to dodge a moving taxicab and was thrown to the ground. Tesla refused to consult a doctor, an almost lifelong custom, and never fully recovered. On 7 January 1943, at the age of 86, Tesla died alone in Room 3327 of the New Yorker Hotel.

   On 9 January 1943 the Federal Bureau of Investigation ordered the Alien Property Custodian to seize Tesla's belongings. John G. Trump, a professor at M.I.T. and a well-known electrical engineer serving as a technical aide to the National Defense Research Committee, was called in to analyze the Tesla items, which were being held in custody. After a three-day investigation, Trump's report concluded that there was nothing which would constitute a hazard in unfriendly hands, stating:

"Tesla's thoughts and efforts during at least the past 15 years were primarily of a speculative, philosophical, and somewhat promotional character often concerned with the production and wireless transmission of power; but did not include new, sound, workable principles or methods for realizing such results."

Interesting facts:
John George Trump (August 21, 1907 – February 21, 1985) was an American electrical engineer, inventor, and physicist.  He was the youngest of three children of German Lutheran immigrants Frederick and Elizabeth Christ Trump.
 John had a sister, Elizabeth Trump Walters (1904–1961), and a brother, Frederick Christ  Trump (October 11, 1905 – June 25, 1999), an American businessman and philanthropist. Frederick was a prominent real-estate developer in New York City , and the father of Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, Maryanne Trump Barry, a former United States Court of Appeals judge, and Frederick Jr, who died at age 42 from complications due to alcoholism.

Tom Hanks

Thomas Jeffrey Hanks (born July 9, 1956, Concord, CA, US) is an American actor and filmmaker.

Hanks was outspoken about his opposition to the 2008 Proposition 8, an amendment to the California constitution that defined marriage as a union only between a man and a woman.
A proponent of environmentalism, Hanks is an investor in electric vehicles and owns a Toyota RAV4 EV.

John Davison Rockefeller Sr

John Davison Rockefeller Sr. (July 8, 1839 – May 23, 1937)  was supporter of capitalism based on a perspective of social Darwinism : "The growth of a large business is merely a survival of the fittest".

Plateau for start

Graph 1 Total number of cases, number of active cases, and rate of change in the United States, logarithmic scale.

   On May 30, there was maximum number of active cases (1 176 025),  on June 16, it was surpassed (1 186 227). The number of active cases on July 1, 2020 is 1 454 397.

Graph 2 Daily number of tests and percentage of detected cases in the United States

   On June 14 (111 day of the epidemic), the minimum percentage of detected cases (2.8%) was reached and the trend reversed.

Graph 3 Graph of the total number of infected  people and  number of active cases in Russia

   Although the infection in Russia started 19 days later than in the United States, the percentage of active  cases in Russia is significantly lower.

Graph 4 Daily number of tests and percentage of detected  cases in Russia

   "Saw" in number of tests characterizes the work of laboratories: war by war, and the lunch is by schedule. It is possible that many of them do not work on weekends. On June 30, the epidemic reached another minimum of 1.9 % on day 106 from the beginning of the epidemic.

Graph 5 Charts of normalized Rt reproduction number in the USA and Russia

   If Rt n is greater than 1, the infection widens, and if it less than 1, it fades. In the US, the plateau was not a maximum, but a respite before real growth. In this graph, the difference between the beginning of the epidemic in the United States and Russia is not 19 but 21 days, to  align weekly cycles. As you can see the risk to catch the desease in the US is, at least 30% higher on Saturdays, than on Tuesdays.
   Whether Russia will follow the well-trodden American path, or Russians mostly overcome the desease, will be revealed in a week.

Two captions. issue #5

There are two options for captions of  the picture: the original and mine. Guess which is the former.
1. '"Quarantine means 40 days, not 90, go to work."
2. “You’re right. It is easier with the ball.”

Two captions. issue #4

There are two options for captions of  the picture: the original and mine.
1. “Who’s the clown in the suit?”
2. "Sir, are authorized to work under influence?"

Picky cusstomers vote with both hands FOR

buildup of herd immunity to covid-19.
On Sunday morning, I went to my hypermarket to buy some food. In the store, there are ads  everywhere, as if borrowed from the rules of the game of chess: "take-move " (touched-take). In the department of vegetables and fruits there are trays with beautiful strawberries. And for the second week I can see aesthetes who take one berry with their hands, examine it and put it back. I address  the management of large stores: "If you have published a rule, monitor its implementation." I guess, that a fine of $8 for one berry that was put back in the tray will solve all the problems of painful choice.  If the store managers have the task of building up a – herd immunity in the city, then such picky and indecisive customers are the ideal guides for this approach to fighting infection.
Now about the tests.

Chart1. Daily number of tests and cases of infection in Russia

The first  chart shows the number of tests and the percentage of infected people in Russia. The highs for the number of tests fall on Saturday and Sunday, and the lows -  on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is as if there is a background testing  with a low detection rate (2.5%) and there are people concerned about their health who come on weekends and raise the percentage of infected people up to 3.5 .

Chart 2. Weekly cycle of infection spikes in the US and Russia

The second chart shows the normalized distribution coefficients Rt n in the United States and in  Russia . In the US, the risk of catching the  infection is 35% higher on Saturday and Sunday than on Wednesday. It is possible that many Americans lead a more active social life over weekends, and, as a result, are more likely to become infected.

In Russia, the opposite picture is observed: The Rt n distribution coefficient is 13% higher on Tuesday-Wednesday than at the weekend. My version of the explanation is that in Russia people spend weekends at their dachas and, consequently, have fewer contacts than on weekdays.

Pro tests. continuation

Epigraph.

And then in normal light it appeared in black

What we value and love, what the team is proud of.

А потом в нормальном свете представало в черном цвете
То, что ценим мы и любим, чем гордится коллектив.
В.Высоцкий

It seems that even the virus realized that it could not frighten the people who overcame the Polovtsians with the Pechenegs. Since June 11, the Rt reproduction coefficient does not exceed 1.01 and is equal to 0.916 on June 19. Unfortunately, this coefficient can become a tool of manipulation in dishonest hands, since the number of detected cases is directly proportional to the number of tests. So that no one has any doubts about the reliability of the picture, we recalculated the Rt coefficient taking into account the number of tests conducted in Russia and the United States. The results are shown in figure 1.

Figure1. Rt and Rt n in Russia and USA

In the US, the normalized Rt n coefficient has become slightly more volatile compared to the classic one, and that's all. The situation in Russia is much more interesting. First, the weekly cycles became much clearer and the chart began to resemble the American one more and more. But most importantly, the picture of a decline of  infection, which is drawn by the usual Rt, has been replaced by cyclical fluctuations in the range of 0.84 -1.1, where there is no decline. On June 19, Rt n is equal to 1.094.

Two captions. issue #3

There are two options for captions of  the picture: the original and mine.

1. "One last thing ..."

2. "Finally, we have reached consensus that the main danger is global warming."

How to calculate the Rt reproduction number in your state, and why I don't expect peak in Russia before June 18

   During the first 3-4 weeks, the infection develops according to the classic scenario when the number of infected is easily calculated using the geometric progression formula. For Chinese flu, R0 (basic reproduction number) is 2...3, and the serial interval (the time between infections) is 5 days. Then the quarantine comes into effect, the number of patients who have been ill increases, and  Rt statistical number is used to assess the epidemy.
According to the Rospotrebnadzor (Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection) methodology, the Rt infection rate is an indicator that determines the average number of people infected by one patient before isolation. The Agency focuses on the regions on the transition to the I phase of the lifting of restrictions at a rate of less than 1.0; II phase - if Rt  is below 0.8.
   Is it possible to calculate this mysterious reproduction number in your state? Last Sunday I finally got to the Rospotrebnadzor manual and now I am happy to share its secret formula with the audience of my blog.

 

X1 ...X8  number of new cases a day. Rt =(X5+X6+X7+X8)/(X1+X2+X3+X4)

Now let's look at the dynamics of Rt in the US and in Russia. Day zero was taken when the number of cases exceeded 50. The comparison is particularly useful because the development of infection in America is 17 days ahead of Russian history. And if the Russian statistics is not very false, then we can predict what will happen in the next 2-3 weeks.

Rt in Russia and the US . X  axis -  days since the beginning of epidemic in the country.

The 7-day cycle of the Rt  in the US and its absence in Russia is immediately noticeable, but otherwise the indicators of development of infection  behave like twins. So, we can project that Russia is unlikely to reach the peak of epidemy before June 18.

Two captions issue #2

There are two options for captions of  the picture: the original and mine.

1.  "Seriously, you wouldn’t believe my seats.”

2. "This 4D TV is incomparable, just only reduce the smell."

"Sovereign" statistics as an alternative to the IgG test

On June 1, several of my friends who work at RSC Energia come out of quarantine. On may 5, their General Manager died from covid-19. On April 1, when the quarantine was introduced, 2,776 infected people were detected in the country, and on May 30  the number was  396,575. In other words, General Manager E. Mikrin was infected at a time when the probability of getting sick was 140 times lower than today. I do not think that in the case of complications, the chances of survival for ordinary employees are higher than for their General Manager, but the chances of getting sick have increased many times: in transport, in the factory canteen, and especially during a 9-hour stay in the office. President Trump demonstrates that he is with the people of America (every citizen received $1,200), he holds meetings, and almost every day communicates with journalists. Our situation is somewhat different with the President and with the help to Russian citizens. It is clear that the National Welfare Fund (169 $ billlion) is not to fight some Chinese flu, but to protect against a cheeky ("nahalny") threat.
But now it would be possible to help those who from June 1 will be packed into trains and buses, work in offices and enterprises so their taxes will go to the budget as a result. Before authorities  throw them into  the Red zone, they could ensure some safety by conducting free tests on antibodies (IgG class immunoglobulins), because today the cost of such a test in the Moscow region is $66 , and the result could be only in 7 days.
Now about the wonders of "sovereign" statistics. The first graph shows the number of cases and the number of people still ill in the United States. Their ratio is 65.2%. The time to double the number of infected people in the country is 53 days.

Two captions.. issue #1

There are two options for captions of the picture: the original and mine.

1. WHO is deceiving when it claims that 70% of covid--19 cases are asymptomatic.

2. " Remember when he was just a humming bird?"

Pro tests

Our assumption that Italy and Spain passed the maximum number of active cases of infection in mid-April has confirmed. Today's table differs from the previous one by adding three columns: the Absolute number of tests, the Relative number of tests, and the Relative number of detected cases. Also, Peru was added instead of China due to the lack of Chinese statistics of tests.

Table 1 shows that in comparison with the Asian stage, a greater number of days is required to reach the maximum number of active cases: previously, 20-40 days, now - 80-90.

Tab.1

More than 5% of the population was tested in Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Israel, and less than 1% - in Iran, Brazil and India. (Hist.1)

Hist.1 Relative to the population number of tests (blue) and the relative number of infected (red)

In terms of the relative number of infected, the USA, Spain and Belgium are ahead (more than 0.4% of the population), tailing  Brazil, South Korea, India and Australia-less than 0.1%. (Chart 1)

Chart 1 Number of infected as a percentage of the population (blue) and number of deaths per 100,000 population (red)

More than 32 deaths per 100,000 population: in Belgium, Spain, Italy, Britain, France, Sweden and the Netherlands. Less than 9 – in India, Australia, South Korea, Russia, Israel, Turkey, Austria, Brazil, Peru and Iran.In Table 1, the 4th column from the end shows the countries that passed the first wave of the epidemic. In the third column from the end, the yellow cells indicate that the wave is close to its apogee and the brown ones indicate countries where the end is not yet visible – Peru, Brazil, Russia, Sweden and India.

The most backward medicine - in three neighboring countries, where the number of deaths relative to the number of cases is highest, %:·

3     Britain    14.4·

2     France   15.3·

1     Belgium  16.4.

And, the most intriguing, 4 countries with the most advanced medicine. In the 4-th column of  Tab.1 you can see number of deaths relative to detected cases, %. The leaders are:·

4       S.Korea     2.4·

3       Israel         1.6·

2       Australia    1.4

Based on official data, country that has the best equipped medicine in the world with the most professional doctors is drum roll :

1        Russia       0.9.

prediction works

Trump says US has ‘passed the peak’ of coronavirus outbreak

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/trump-says-us-has-passed-the-peak-of-coronavirus-outbreak.html


'In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics". 

At least 2.5 billion of the World's 7.7 population can relax

In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics. And today, in Italy and Spain, the maximum number of infected people (Active Cases) is recorded, after which COVID-19 will go down.

En toda España cielo despejado

The table below shows the countries with the highest number of infected people. Mortality relative to the number of infected people varies from 0.78% in Russia to 12.77% in Italy (4th column). If the number of deaths is attributed to the number of residents, the spread among countries where the peak has passed will be as follows,%:

Australia 0.00022

China 0.00024

US 0.00569

Italy 0.03129

Spain 0.03472  (6th column).