How to calculate the Rt reproduction number in your state, and why I don't expect peak in Russia before June 18

   During the first 3-4 weeks, the infection develops according to the classic scenario when the number of infected is easily calculated using the geometric progression formula. For Chinese flu, R0 (basic reproduction number) is 2...3, and the serial interval (the time between infections) is 5 days. Then the quarantine comes into effect, the number of patients who have been ill increases, and  Rt statistical number is used to assess the epidemy.
According to the Rospotrebnadzor (Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection) methodology, the Rt infection rate is an indicator that determines the average number of people infected by one patient before isolation. The Agency focuses on the regions on the transition to the I phase of the lifting of restrictions at a rate of less than 1.0; II phase - if Rt  is below 0.8.
   Is it possible to calculate this mysterious reproduction number in your state? Last Sunday I finally got to the Rospotrebnadzor manual and now I am happy to share its secret formula with the audience of my blog.

 

X1 ...X8  number of new cases a day. Rt =(X5+X6+X7+X8)/(X1+X2+X3+X4)

Now let's look at the dynamics of Rt in the US and in Russia. Day zero was taken when the number of cases exceeded 50. The comparison is particularly useful because the development of infection in America is 17 days ahead of Russian history. And if the Russian statistics is not very false, then we can predict what will happen in the next 2-3 weeks.

Rt in Russia and the US . X  axis -  days since the beginning of epidemic in the country.

The 7-day cycle of the Rt  in the US and its absence in Russia is immediately noticeable, but otherwise the indicators of development of infection  behave like twins. So, we can project that Russia is unlikely to reach the peak of epidemy before June 18.

Two captions issue #2

There are two options for captions of  the picture: the original and mine.

1.  "Seriously, you wouldn’t believe my seats.”

2. "This 4D TV is incomparable, just only reduce the smell."

"Sovereign" statistics as an alternative to the IgG test

On June 1, several of my friends who work at RSC Energia come out of quarantine. On may 5, their General Manager died from covid-19. On April 1, when the quarantine was introduced, 2,776 infected people were detected in the country, and on May 30  the number was  396,575. In other words, General Manager E. Mikrin was infected at a time when the probability of getting sick was 140 times lower than today. I do not think that in the case of complications, the chances of survival for ordinary employees are higher than for their General Manager, but the chances of getting sick have increased many times: in transport, in the factory canteen, and especially during a 9-hour stay in the office. President Trump demonstrates that he is with the people of America (every citizen received $1,200), he holds meetings, and almost every day communicates with journalists. Our situation is somewhat different with the President and with the help to Russian citizens. It is clear that the National Welfare Fund (169 $ billlion) is not to fight some Chinese flu, but to protect against a cheeky ("nahalny") threat.
But now it would be possible to help those who from June 1 will be packed into trains and buses, work in offices and enterprises so their taxes will go to the budget as a result. Before authorities  throw them into  the Red zone, they could ensure some safety by conducting free tests on antibodies (IgG class immunoglobulins), because today the cost of such a test in the Moscow region is $66 , and the result could be only in 7 days.
Now about the wonders of "sovereign" statistics. The first graph shows the number of cases and the number of people still ill in the United States. Their ratio is 65.2%. The time to double the number of infected people in the country is 53 days.

Two captions.. issue #1

There are two options for captions of the picture: the original and mine.

1. WHO is deceiving when it claims that 70% of covid--19 cases are asymptomatic.

2. " Remember when he was just a humming bird?"

Pro tests

Our assumption that Italy and Spain passed the maximum number of active cases of infection in mid-April has confirmed. Today's table differs from the previous one by adding three columns: the Absolute number of tests, the Relative number of tests, and the Relative number of detected cases. Also, Peru was added instead of China due to the lack of Chinese statistics of tests.

Table 1 shows that in comparison with the Asian stage, a greater number of days is required to reach the maximum number of active cases: previously, 20-40 days, now - 80-90.

Tab.1

More than 5% of the population was tested in Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Israel, and less than 1% - in Iran, Brazil and India. (Hist.1)

Hist.1 Relative to the population number of tests (blue) and the relative number of infected (red)

In terms of the relative number of infected, the USA, Spain and Belgium are ahead (more than 0.4% of the population), tailing  Brazil, South Korea, India and Australia-less than 0.1%. (Chart 1)

Chart 1 Number of infected as a percentage of the population (blue) and number of deaths per 100,000 population (red)

More than 32 deaths per 100,000 population: in Belgium, Spain, Italy, Britain, France, Sweden and the Netherlands. Less than 9 – in India, Australia, South Korea, Russia, Israel, Turkey, Austria, Brazil, Peru and Iran.In Table 1, the 4th column from the end shows the countries that passed the first wave of the epidemic. In the third column from the end, the yellow cells indicate that the wave is close to its apogee and the brown ones indicate countries where the end is not yet visible – Peru, Brazil, Russia, Sweden and India.

The most backward medicine - in three neighboring countries, where the number of deaths relative to the number of cases is highest, %:·

3     Britain    14.4·

2     France   15.3·

1     Belgium  16.4.

And, the most intriguing, 4 countries with the most advanced medicine. In the 4-th column of  Tab.1 you can see number of deaths relative to detected cases, %. The leaders are:·

4       S.Korea     2.4·

3       Israel         1.6·

2       Australia    1.4

Based on official data, country that has the best equipped medicine in the world with the most professional doctors is drum roll :

1        Russia       0.9.

prediction works

Trump says US has ‘passed the peak’ of coronavirus outbreak

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/trump-says-us-has-passed-the-peak-of-coronavirus-outbreak.html


'In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics". 

At least 2.5 billion of the World's 7.7 population can relax

In their countries, the peak of the epidemic has either passed, or it will happen in the next five days. Today is April 11, 2020-Great Saturday for Catholics. And today, in Italy and Spain, the maximum number of infected people (Active Cases) is recorded, after which COVID-19 will go down.

En toda España cielo despejado

The table below shows the countries with the highest number of infected people. Mortality relative to the number of infected people varies from 0.78% in Russia to 12.77% in Italy (4th column). If the number of deaths is attributed to the number of residents, the spread among countries where the peak has passed will be as follows,%:

Australia 0.00022

China 0.00024

US 0.00569

Italy 0.03129

Spain 0.03472  (6th column).

Forecast for April 13 (one month since the beginning of the epidemic in Russia)

On April 8, 2020, Prime Minister Mishustin proudly reported: "About 800 thousand studies (tests for COVID-19) have already been done." The cost of the test in impoverished Russia is $16. For friends, a good business with a turnover of $800  million (50 million tests) is being hatched. Will the aplomb of a fresh Prime Minister remain in May, when the country will receive 800,000 infected people for 800,000 tests, made  in April?  For comparison, in a prosperous Germany, 200 thousand tests  are conducted  for FREE every Day. The government is responsible for all expenses.  Since April 5, has been testing for antibodies to the coronavirus randomly selected 4,500 people in Munich, in order to understand what percentage of the city's residents are currently ill with COVID-19, and, also, what is the proportion of those who have already been ill, having developed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The experiment will last 4 weeks.

Dynamics for 3.5 weeks

In Russia, the epidemic has been slowing since the end of March. The period for doubling the number of cases increased from 2.7 days in mid-March to 4.6 days in early April. If we compare the doubling time with the United States, then on April 8, we are closest to Pennsylvania, which on the 19th day of the epidemic had 10 thousand infected and the period for doubling was 5 days. In the United States since day 32 (300 thousand infected) there is 7 days for doubling.
   Statistical zero - is the day when the number of cases exceeds 50. For the US, this is February  24, and for Russia, is March 14, 2020.
  According to the current trend, there should be about 18,500 COVID-19 infected people in Russia on April 13 (the month from statistical zero). By this time there will be enough data to forecast the date of the trend reversal and estimate the total number of infected people.
in Russian

When will this disease go away? part 2

                                                                    - Please  tell me, when will this disease go way?

 - According to the news, only in 2036 
(Joke)

   Now about Russia, where rulers also chose the Chinese version of the fight against infection. A little information about the new flu: symptoms of COVID-19 infection resemble those of seasonal flu (dry cough, fever,  weakness). It is believed that this virus is much more virulent. Let's calculate. R0 (basic reproduction number or how many zero patient infected:  

• influenza   1.4-2.8,
• CAVID-19  1.4-3.9,
• Measles     12-18. 

But this information is not enough to predict the epidemic, you need to know the serial interval (the time between infections). For  "Spanish flu"  it is 3 days and 5 days for COVID-19. The mortality  of  the  "Spanish flu" in 1918-1919 was 5-10%, for  Corona-virus  is 0.5 (if treated), and the same 5-8% if not treated.  On average , get sick  COVID-19 for 25 days, or die after 18 day of illness.

When will this disease go away? part 1

Epigraph. I opened social networks,
and I was surprised: why so
many virologists in my friends list ? Decent 

political scientists. they were after all. 

I think that the war will end in 3 months. But the number of corpses and the state of the economy in different countries will demonstrate the true IQ of their leaders. In the fight against COVID-19, 99% of countries chose the Chinese version of enhanced social distancing, ideally-locking in quarantine (from ital. quaranta — "forty"). each family in their own apartment. Taking into account the last statement of W.Putin quarantine in Moscow (41 days, March 21-April 30) will take on its original meaning. The United States, which is half a month ahead of Russia in the phase of the epidemic, has chosen the option of a state of emergency that is in effect throughout the country. Each state has its own implementation details: for example, in California, residents are ordered to stay at home, public meetings are prohibited, kindergartens, schools, bars, restaurants, and most stores are closed. At the same time, no one closes parks, prohibits people from Cycling or taking walks. Taking these measures into account, D. Trump's advisers predict the peak of the epidemic on April 15.

The total number of victims is expected to be 100-240 thousand. (without an emergency, these figures could reach 1.5-2.2 million). 

As of April 1, 216,000 people were infected and 5,100 died in the United States.

It is clear that in this version of the fight against the virus, the economy is sacrificed. A more balanced approach was chosen by the leadership of Sweden and Belarus. The Swedish government supported the strategy of the public health Agency, developed by epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. The scientist believes that a rigid quarantine is not needed, because long-term infection can be defeated either through universal vaccination, or as a result of  herd immunity - limited method of infection, providing a way to slow the spread and reach as many people. In Sweden, there are almost no restrictions, there are businesses, restaurants, schools and shops. There are only recommendations: if possible, switch to remote work, avoid contact with the elderly, and observe hygiene.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 infection in the Scandinavian countries as of April 1, 2020:

Original text is  here.                      To be continued ...

The ice is melting

   In the last post there is a record of the Highest break of The  King of the Crucible that he made  in 2009, when he was 40 years old. But in the following years, the quality of his game did not fall, as evidenced by the Highest  breaks he  made in 2011 and 2012. However, 2012 was the last in the Main Tour of The Ice Man. In the 1/16- th World Chempionship,   2012, Hendry defeated Bingham (ranking 17 in the beginning of the season, and 16 at the end) - 10:4 (match when he made his last 11th Highest break). In 1/8, he did not leave a chance for defending  title  World Champion, and countryman Higgins (started the season 2nd, finished 5th) - 13:3. In the quarterfinals, two Stevens, two Scots met: 31-year-old  Maguire  from Glasgow (ranking in the season 8-4) and 43-year-old  Hendry who was born in Edinburgh, who dropped in ranking from 16th to 21st place.
   Let's go back to the background of this historic match. The irony of fate is that with his brilliant games in the 90s, his 7 titles and his prize money, the King of the Crucible attracted tens of thousands of boys to snooker, who could see the smallest nuances of the game on TV, hear intelligent comments and analysis of experts. These boys trained hard, went through the toughest selection sieve, and by the 2000-s were audacious contenders for a place in the sun. I think that if snooker in the 90-s and 2000-s did not become a television sport, Hendry could have remained The King for many years and most likely broke the record of 15-time  (1927-1940, 1946 ) World Champion Joe Davis. TV and the great game of Hendry  as a player contributed to the arrival of a new generation of talented players in snooker. They raised the level of competition so much that The Ice Man in the 2000-s began to thaw, which was reflected in a gradual decline in his rating. But back to the game.
   When a young, cheeky player met with a 7-times World Champion, he had a huge advantage - if he lost, no one would blame him, but The King of Crucible was increasingly irritated by the self-confidence of the talented youngsters and the pressure from previous failures increased. As a result, The Ice Man did not demonstrate his best performance and deepened the psychological hole. In the 1/4 World Championship of 2012, Hendry lost to Maguire 2:13 and immediately announced that he was retiring and that he had made the decision 3 months ago.

Curiously, this was the season when Trump from the 9th place soared to the 2nd, but in the 1/8 of World Championship lost to Carter 12:13. And Carter (in the season dropped from 6 to 17) in the semifinal beat 17:12  Maguire, who made to retire The  King of the Crucible. The World Champion in 2012  (as in 2001, 2004, 2008 and 2013) become O'Sullivan (places in the season 11-9), who beat Carter 18:11 and earned £250,000.

Hendry must have been particularly emotional about losing to Maguire. After all, The King of  the Crucible made his 10th maximum in the 1/8 Welsh Open in 2011. But this achievement was overshadowed by the same Maguire, winning the math 4: 2.

   I think that Stephen still regretted the decision to leave the Tour in 2012. By that time, a remarkable shift had grown up in Scotland: McManus, Dott, Higgins, Maguire, McGill, Donaldson - but even in the pack of these superprofi, Hendry could remain an  ace until today. Hendry's World Snooker profile states that he is "generally considered the greatest snooker player ever", and it is difficult to disagree with this.

The King of the Crucible

Since 1977, the World Snooker Championship has been held in the city of Sheffield (England) in the building of the theater with the telling name Crucible  Theatre . On April 28, 2009, the Crucible crowd cheered their King Stephen Hendry (10) and The Magician  Shaun Murphy(3), who played a quarterfinal match to 13 wins.

During his life as snooker player , Hendry had  several nicknames: The  Golden Boy ( 1985-1990), The King of the Crucible (1991-2006), and The Ice Man ( 2007-2012). In the seventh frame, after 16 hits, The King scored 64 points, playing only  through the black . After the 8th black cue ball rolled an extra 10 cm, and you Stephen had to choose: a safety shot or a crooked triple plant. In this position, great pragmatists like Selby or Robertson would probably have chosen safety shot , because there were still 83 points on the table

But the great Scot, who is 40 years old, chose the attack and carried out this blow as if in training, without long rounds of the table and manipulations with the cue in search of a target point . In this game Hendry made his 9 out of 11 maximum break (15*8+27=147 points) and led the match 5-2. 

He showed again that he was still King of the Crucible. After the frame, Murphy warmly congratulated his  famous opponent.

Stephen nevertheless  lost the entire match with a score of 11: 13. In the semifinals, Murphy beat Roberson 17: 14, but in the final lost to Higgins (The Title holder of  1998, 2007, 2009, 2011 years) 9: 18.

For his fantastic series, Hendry received a modest increase to his upcoming pension - £140,000 (this is how much the maximum cost in 2009!) plus £10,000, - for the best break.

Snooker is a small life

Snooker is like a dangerous virus. Just watch one or two games, and you get it forever. I am sure that in 5-10 years this game will be the highest rated TV game a spectacle, leaving behind tennis, football and baseball. In 1967, snooker took 14 minutes in the grid of the BBC. In 2007 this figure increased to 400 hours, i.e. more than one hour per day!

   The highest level of modern snooker achieved, in many ways, thanks to TV broadcasts when the boys of the 90's you could see the game of a living legend - Stephen Hendry.
   Stephen was born in Edinburgh on 13 January 1969 and first time picked up a cue at the age of 12, when his father ave him a smaller snooker table for Christmas (and his birthday). At age of 16, Hendry turned professional, and in 21 years old, in 1990, won the title of the World Champion. In 1992-1996 and 1999 the undefeated Scot takes another 6 world titles.

   For comparison, in 2019, brilliant English player Judd Trump only at the age of 29 became the Champion of the World first time. Hendry,  when he was 30,  had  won 7 (!) titles of the World Champion. 

   Hendry was not only the best in break-building, he was the inventor of techniques, which became classics after him. Prior to Hendry, players would usually attempt to break the pack of reds by cutting the black in the corner. However there was always a great risk of burying the cue ball and losing an attack.  Hendry invented, now common technique,  of potting the blue with pace and bottom spin on the white ball to cannon into the pink, with the object being to hit the pink ball to open the pack of reds and develop them for break-building. 

   During his professional career (1986-2012)  Stephen earned £8.97 million  in prize money, made 775 centuries, and 11 highest breaks.

In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.
ALBERT EINSTEIN

Family Realizes Pet Dog Might Be a Bear After Animal Starts to Walk Around on Hind Legs

http://people.com/pets/pet-dog-is-bear-not-tibetan-mastiff/

https://pagesix.com/2018/03/25/this-blonde-may-be-putins-new-pet/

Kill all white people

http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/crime/article170340652.html

2018

Let a fool be made serviceable according to his folly.

Joseph Conrad (1857-1924)

Don't promise when you're happy, Don't reply when you're angry, and don't decide when you're sad.
Avicenna

Michael the best

I want to share feelings about my adorable dog Michael

2016-2017

Fortune cannot aid those who do nothing.

Sophocles (496 BC-406 BC)

I never reasoned on what I should do, but what I had done; as if my Reason had her eyes behind, and could only see backwards.

Henry Fielding (1707-1754)

Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

John F. Kennedy (1917-1963)

Here is true immorality: ignorance and stupidity; the devil is nothing but this.

Gustave Flaubert(1821-1880)

Buy an annuity cheap, and make your life interesting to yourself and everybody else that watches the speculation.
Charles Dickens (1812-1870)